The Atlantic hurricane season 2026 begins on June 1, with a 55% chance of being below average. A strong El Niño could bring fewer storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its forecast for the season, predicting between eight and 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which between three and six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher); and, of those hurricanes, between one and three could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). When a positive phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs — that is, El Niño — the tropical Pacific presents temperatures above average. Although oceanic warming is concentrated in the eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño has global repercussions. This phenomenon can occur at any time of the year; however, when it occurs in the summer, it directly affects the number of tropical systems prone to developing in the Atlantic. One of the reasons we predict the formation of an intense episode of El Niño is that the waters of the tropical Pacific have experienced significant warming in recent months; between January and May, the surface water temperature has increased approximately 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius). Additionally, periods of unusually strong westerly winds have pushed warm waters eastward through the tropical Pacific. Seasonal forecast models agree that it is likely that El Niño will reach its peak — ranging from strong to very strong — by the end of 2026 or early 2027. El Niño promotes an increase in the number of tropical systems in the tropical Pacific by reducing wind shear (that is, the variation of winds in the upper layers of the atmosphere). In the Atlantic, the opposite effect occurs: during El Niño episodes, wind shear intensifies, often preventing tropical systems from completing their development cycle. It is worth noting that wind shear can fluctuate — increasing or decreasing — throughout the season and manifesting with great intensity in one region of the Atlantic basin while simultaneously remaining weak in another region.